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Brief note intended as a more regular interface with our clients. The emphasis is to provide our interpretation of important economic events, such as South African Reserve Bank interest rate statements, and key data releases, including GDP growth figures.
The surveys painted a picture of weak domestic demand, pressure on costs and hence profitability, increased uncertainty, and a downscaling of fixed investment as well as employment. This is not promising for the overall economic outlook in Q3 and beyond. At this stage, the BER is not forecasting a technical recession for Q3, but there is scope for a slowdown in GDP on a year-on-year basis. However, a recession could be on the cards should strike action or closures hit mining or manufacturing activity.
