General
Publications & Data
Join the conversation
Social Links
Social Links
Brief note intended as a more regular interface with our clients. The emphasis is to provide our interpretation of important economic events, such as South African Reserve Bank interest rate statements, and key data releases, including GDP growth figures.
Real GDP recovered in line with expectations during 2015Q3, posting growth of 0.7% q-o-q (saar1). The modest growth follows the sharp 1.3% GDP decline in the second quarter. The implication is that SA avoided slipping into a technical recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of GDP decline. The Q3 figure was somewhat weaker than the market consensus of 1%, but in line with our view. Unlike preceding years, when the Q3 GDP data was accompanied by annual revisions to the previous figures, this has been postponed to March 2016 when the 2015Q4 data is set to be released. Stats SA also confirmed that, starting with the 2016Q1 GDP release (scheduled for early June 2016), they will present data on GDP from both the expenditure and production side in a single publication. The SA Reserve Bank will no longer be tasked with compiling the GDP expenditure figures.
