General
Publications & Data
Join the conversation
Social Links
Social Links
Research Notes are more in-depth analyses undertaken by BER economists and consultants.
Brief note intended as a more regular interface with our clients.
In-depth analysis of important political developments in South Africa.
The Impumelelo Economic Growth Lab is a unit at the BER, focussing on generating policy-relevant work and capacity building to achieve economic success in South Africa. This work is freely available to access on our website.
The FNB/BER consumer confidence index (CCI) declined by 1 index point – from +15 to +14 – during 2010Q4. Overall, the index has remained more or less unchanged during 2010. The index measuring the consumers’ rating of the present as appropriate to purchase durable goods showed the biggest improvement, reaching its highest level since 2008Q1.
Read MorePresident Jacob Zuma’s October Cabinet reshuffle, repeatedly labelled by commentators as the biggest since 1994, was less significant for government and its performance than this conventional wisdom suggests. But the reshuffle is still important – for the political messages it sends more than for the concrete differences it will make to government.
Read MoreThe calculations in this note show that around 186 000 international tourists arrived in South Africa during the World Cup. Realistic assumptions about the average expenditure of these tourists (based on the relatively high hotel and transport prices during the tournament) and expenditure during a normal June, yields additional expenditure by tourists of R2.5 billion (0.1% of projected 2010 GDP). South Africans spent an estimated R1.3 billion on World Cup tickets which reduces the impact of the tournament on the local economy as these tickets belonged to FIFA and were in effect imported services. This reduces the net direct impact of the tournament via tourist expenditure to 0.05% of GDP with an ultimate impact of around 0.1% of GDP assuming a realistic multiplier of 2 for the tourism sector.
Read MoreDuring 3Q2010 the FNB/BER consumer confidence index (CCI) remained virtually unchanged (a reading of +15 was recorded) relative to both the first and second quarters of this year. The noticeable improvement in high income earners’ willingness to buy durable goods stands out as one of the most noteworthy results of the 3Q2010 survey.
Read MoreAfter falling from 43 to 36 in the second quarter of 2010, the RMB/BER business confidence index (BCI) rebounded to 47 in the third quarter. The third quarter rise lifted the index to its highest level in 2½ years i.e. the time shortly before the onset of the global financial turmoil and subsequent recession.
Read MoreGiven the BER baseline view on prospects for the overall South African economy, a sustained expansion in overall building activity is only expected towards late 2011. Fixed investment in the private residential sector is expected to lead the revival. In terms of the BER baseline forecast, the recovery in the building industry over the medium term is unlikely to match the robustness of that which was evident in the previous expansion of 2003-2007. An average real growth rate in fixed investment in buildings of 5.4% for 2011-2015 is forecast.
Read MoreThe FNB/BER consumer confidence index (CCI) remained largely unchanged, decreasing by 1 index point from +15 during 2010Q1 to +14 during 2010Q2. This represents the first decline in consumer confidence in three quarters.
Read MoreThe RMB/BER business confidence index (BCI) decreased by 7 index points, from 43 in 2010Q1 to 36 during 2010Q2. The decline in the BCI does not indicate an end to the economic recovery, but rather a reality check on the 15-year record leap of the previous quarter. The main reason indicated for the decline was a lack of demand from both SA consumers and export markets. As a consequence, job creation may suffer somewhat.
Read MoreReal consumer spending is projected to increase by 2.1% in 2010 (i.e. not recovering completely from the 3.1% contraction of 2009), and accelerate to 3.7% in 2011 and 4% plus from 2012 onwards.
Given that we witnessed both the longest economic upswing (1999Q1 to 2008Q2) in real consumer spending since 1947, and the deepest recession in 25 years (in 2009), the last decade can be described as tumultuous times for the South African (and indeed global) consumer. This research note explores the relative performance of the different final consumption expenditure (FCE) categories over these turbulent times.
Read MoreDuring the first quarter of 2010, the FNB/BER’s consumer confidence index (CCI) increased by 9 index points from +6 during 2009Q4. The current reading of +15 is the highest since 2007Q4 and also higher than the long-term average of +2...
Read MoreThe RMB/BER business confidence index (BCI) improved by 15 index points – from 28 during 2009Q4 to 43 in 2010Q1. This is the single largest quarterly increase since 1994Q4, albeit from a much lower base. The largest improvement was registered in the new vehicle sales sector where confidence improved by 31 points.
Read More
